What If Tech Stays Dead

IsGlobalismThreateningTechCareers? Even worse, what if the economy keeps improving but tech never comes back? We will be dumped into a panicky pool of ever growing, ever desperate techies clawing for the few remaining jobs.

We need a mass exit strategy. It may not happen, but we should start planning and at least have a contingency plan. TurnOnTuneInDropOut?

http://www.haas.berkeley.edu/news/Research_Report_Fall_2003.pdf

This is not out of the question. The world employs very few automobile designers because there are very few automobile manufacturers. It could be that all paying software jobs concentrate in a few large package vendors who wield monopolistic power over their sectors. Another even more extreme scenario would have manual programming replaced with some form of automation that does not require talent from the individuals involved. The model for this would be telegraph operators who were once at the center of a rapidly shrinking world only to be totally obsolete a few decades later.

(That was authored by 'wc', for the record.)

Depressing thought. The thing is, corporations believe in the ArmyOfProgrammers theory: that programming is just like any other semi-skilled job, like digging ditches, and so, if you get enough ditch-diggers, it doesn't matter whether they are unskilled or semi-skilled (and management is already of the opinion that this is not a fully-skilled job category).

They're wrong, at least when it comes to the truly 'difficult projects, of course, but how to make them see that? Or shall we all roll over and play dead and tell management that programming requires nothing special that's any different than ditch-digging?

I've hired, and worked closely with the best from Russia, China, India, you name it, and such people are astonishingly good. But they're also cherry-picked.

Consider Ramanujan. Then think about that. Then think about that some more. The fact that very smart people are found everywhere is not, by any means, the end of the story.

It is if they are happy earning $2 an hour.

It usually goes a lot further in their country than it does in the US. One has to compare the wages to the cost of living at that place.

I for one am not very worried about this. A high percentage of techies are very creative and will develop an entrepreneurial spirit under pressure. While the economy stays strong we will find ways to sell our talents.

From personal experience I can attest that entrepreneurial skills are often different from tech skills for the most part. Marketing is key, and few of us techies have existing sufficient marketing skills or knack. The best mousetrap will go nowhere without sales. (Very few products are self-selling, and it is not likely we can all find those rare gems.)

Ahh, spoken like a true robber baron. Do you, perchance, have a half-million bucks socked away? Or perhaps you have euro-denominated holdings? Not all of us are quite so lucky. The work has dried up like a sidewalk puddle in July. Lots of requests for quotes and lots of interest in new projects; no money changing hands. This is sucky beyond description.

I agree that this is a bad time for us techies, we are under pressure, but these things are cyclic. The wheel will turn, I believe that the point I made above is one of the factors that will cause it to turn.

I've actually seen the work get better in the last year, both for myself and for other programmers I know. Somebody I know is even looking for a programmer for a startup with non-trivial technology.

Where are you located? It is dead where I am.

I'm in NewYorkCity. But geography is less important in this case than sociology: I spent a lot of the downtime chasing programming-related activities that interested me, regardless of their immediate commercial payoff, such as open-source programming in RubyLanguage and being involved for a while with XpNewYorkCity. Which put me closer to people with my interests and my outlook on life, which means as they get opportunities they might pass them to me, or as I get opportunities I might pass them to them. I keep reminding myself that the ideal job is the one where you don't have to leave anything off of your resume to apply to it.

But you have to be of a certain mindset to take advantage of the shifts in an industry like this. The thing that cost $10000 three years ago could cost $100 now, so you have to be willing to keep moving, pushing forwards into the problems that are new and have yet to be solved and interest you. I think not many people feel this way about their work, or want to. If you're not one of those people, you should either a) organize with other like-minded souls to enact deep structural change in the technology industry (and capitalism in general) or b) get out. -- francis

I have already tried multiple software startups without success. Entrepreneurship is not easy.

It's not supposed to be. And it isn't supposed to be required of all participants in the marketplace, but unfortunately it's becoming the only way to get a job with any sort of prospects and dignity. (Not to mention health care.)

I'm not kidding about that "organize with other like-minded souls" bit, by the way. The changes that are happening to you are happening to other tech workers, to fired auto workers in Detroit, and all of society as a whole. Global capitalism is becoming like a very big, very fast treadmill: Either run as fast as you can, or fall off entirely. The question is not whether such a thing is good: It's pretty bloody horrible. The question is: What are you going to do about it? -- francis

I think we can learn a great deal from the computer game industry. There was a time when one person could make a fortune by writing and selling a game written in Basic. He could compose the monophonic sound track, draw the crude graphics and write the code all by himself. Customer expectations were much lower. Today's games have teams of people who never write a line of code: graphic artists, musicians, voice talent, designers, marketers. Writing the software is still hard work, but the development tools have advanced significantly. Today's customers expect more human creativity and artistry from their games, and that's where the big costs are.

Writing a game used to be more like writing a book. One dedicated person could do it in their spare time. Today it's more like making a movie.

This is true in general, but there are successful small teams out there. The six developers of Yohoho Puzzle Pirates (http://www.puzzlepirates.com/) is an example (and that's for a persistent world multiple player online rpg). I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few others.

Some others: Egenesis' A Tale in the Desert (http://www.egenesis.com), voted "Best New RPG of 2003" by http://www.rpgdot.com, was made by three guys in a tiny office (and a handful of art interns).

You may not be able to influence the hiring policies and practices of the large tech companies. Okay, you're an intelligent person, look at the model from other perspectives. Check your LifeVectors. I'm sure there will be a WayToWin.

I have tried 3 startups already. It is time to get back to reality. I am tired of "new economy", "creativity" bullcrap.

I worked for four startups, got to where you are now, went to work for a Fortune 500 company, and am now getting outsourced to India. I'm putting back in with the startups. At least in a startup, whether I actually do work or just sit on my thumbs all day means something.

Except for the money part.

Stay or Bail?

I don't question that there will always be small niches here and there in tech, but the problem is that there is/will-be an oversupply of displaced techies digging around for such niches, often getting in each other's way. The key decision is whether to try to stay with tech and prepare for a rough battle, or find something else that is less offshore-able.

Even in the still sluggish economy of spring 2004, we at ThoughtWorks are hiring and growing. If you are one of the best of the best in either Java or .NET and don't mind traveling, check us out: http://www.thoughtworks.com/career/opportunities.html ... this is how the hiring process works http://www.thoughtworks.com/career/selection.html

Okay, shameless, but hopefully helpful to some, plug aside, I think (and this is my own view, not necessarily the view of ThoughtWorks) tech will stay dead, if dead means that 1999-like boomtimes will not return. That day is over. It was built partly on a lot of false assumptions anyway. Also, outsourcing will grow and companies will get better at managing these projects. If a college student asked me if it was a good idea to major in ComputerScience these days, I'd have to say "no". I'm not being pessimistic, I just think that there is a whole world of smart people waiting to have the opportunity to be brought into the economy, and that software projects are easily done remotely (as compared to giving health care to someone), so it's going to happen more and more. There will still be a strong but small demand for very bright and/or very senior people onshore... or people who have tons of domain experience. That is the WayToWin I am currently looking for personally. If I focus on becoming a domain expert in a complex domain or two to augment my programming abilities and leadership skills, then I have maximized my employment potential, and minimized my chance of being OffShored?. That's the theory I've concocted anyway.

JohnPerkins

Domain experience? WhyIsDomainKnowledgeNotValued. Most "brainy" domains are also going overseas. LawsOfPhysicsAreTheSameInIndia. The U.S. is becoming a big marketing hub.

Anti-Family Trend?

Re: and don't mind traveling...

It seems more of the available tech jobs are temporary contracts and/or require a lot of travaling. Those of us with families find this problematic. One of the reason that H-1B visa workers are so popular with employers is that they don't have families to tie them down. They not only are willing to move about, but can work 80-hours a week without the distraction of family issues.

[Another view: it's not necessarily true that H-1Bs *don't* have family issues; they just put their families aside geographically for economic reasons. This might be because the job market or economy in their home country sucks, and it's financially advantageous to work in the US. However low-for-the-market they may be paid in the US, their home country probably pays less; sometimes you do what you need to do for your family.]

CategoryEmployment