Ytwok Paranoia

CategoryHistorical

For the latecomers, this page and the links that depend on it are a little slice of history, left intact for your amusement. -- PeterMerel

February 1999:

For a survey of informed opinion on what's about to happen, check out http://www.wdcy2k.org/survey/survey99/. Quick summary: 45% say it's a bump in the road, 45% say it's a wall in the road, and 10% say it's the end of the road. Some wiki regulars have been crass enough to bet on this - see YtwokBet.

Y2K has hit the mainstream since we last visited these pages. Perhaps De Jager is right, and the fixes are being made. Two big hurdles were cleared with, as far as we know, no great incident: the Euro is now legal tender, and the 330-day lookahead on airline reservations has caused no hiccups.

Still, what's interesting about the scale at the top of the YtwokUpdate page is that it's derived by ranking the threats. Social integrity is more important than utilities are more important than manufacturing systems are more important than distribution systems are more important than trading systems are more important than COTS. A SNAFU in something more important will obviate progress made in something less important.

Looking at it this way, the progress De Jager points out addresses mostly the last two of these; he isn't, apparently, especially knowledgeable about the threats and work going on in the first four. There's a case to be made that no-one has an adequate understanding of those more important systems; they're too widespread, too complex, and two compartmentalized for anyone to really know for sure.

So De Jager's motivations in making happy-face statements in 1999, after predicting doomsday in 1998, seem open to interpretation. Perhaps he really has obtained the inside scoop on the work that's going on, and he's just not sharing that scoop with us for reasons of personal liability. Another interpretation suggests he's just convinced, like CoryHamasaki, that dire problems are now unavoidable, and that efforts to forestall a panic will be of more benefit than late forebodings. Or perhaps that's more GaryNorth-style paranoia. Who knows?

Do the Olympics have a paranoia event? I foresee a Gold.

I'm not even in the running; you might like to read folk like TC May, EdYourdon, Hamasaki, Rick Cowles and so on. There are plenty of techies who truly are heading for the hills. I'm SanchoPanza by comparison.

But the YtwokEmbeddedSystems problems suggest too many avenues of critical failure remain open for anyone to conclude that the important work is being accomplished at an adequate rate. Rationally, we must hope that it is and make preparations for the chance that it isn't.

My feeling on the YtwokUpdate scale is still pretty much where it was six months ago. I haven't seen anything that would change it either way. I bought myself a little house in a quiet defensible subtropical suburb next to a US military base, and I expect that to take care of any law-and-order problems that arise. I've spent about $500 on storable food from http://www.soyfood.com and http://www.glitchproof.com (not an ad. - I have a commercial interest in neither of these), and I expect to spend maybe that much again on rice, beans, TP and medicine. I expect to have a working solar oven and solar still shortly, and I have ample wash-water in my swimming pool. I took a job with a counter-cyclic business, and I'm keeping some cash in a safe deposit box.

In other words, I'm not heading for the hills or making many preparations that I'll feel too distressed about if the whole thing is a sneeze. Well, except for ranting in public like this. But if we do end up at YU 3 or worse, or if an earthquake hits, I'm content that I've made all the preparations I can. Time to buckle up and hold on tight. -- PeterMerel

Why do you imagine that you will be able to get to your safe deposit box?

My bank is only a couple of blocks from home, caters mainly to high-net-worth individuals (i.e., not scum like me :-), and isn't part of a chain. But of course they might close their doors as soon as any other, in which case that's my tough luck.

Shouldn't the cash be closer by?

I don't think I'd sleep well if I had it in the mattress. If we see any sort of full-blown panic, cash might be dangerous stuff to hold. But I like the idea of knowing where there's RealPaperBanknotes if need be. Doesn't need to be a lot of cash - maybe a few weeks worth. Sure, paranoid, but at least I'm not one of those mugs converting their whole stash to gold coins ...

Aren't you a bit uncomfortable near the base, knowing as you do that the government is way behind on Y2K, so that the hungry military guys will be roaming your streets looking for your soyfood.

This is a big base. They have several aircraft carriers docked there at the moment. If they can't feed themselves for a prolonged period without my help, they're screwed anyway.

With guns?

If the military comes with guns they can have whatever I've got. Shooting it out with the authorities is not a good idea. If things get like that, I'd try to sell them programming skills for food. Sure, MartialLaw is no fun, but the alternative might not be too much fun either. If things really dive off the deep end, the hills will be full of crazies with uzis. Much easier to deal with UncleSam, I think.

And one more thing: stock up on Dristan. It's going to be a sneeze. Not a sniffle, but a sneeze.

Sure, there's a chance this is all just a paranoid fantasy. I sure hope it is. But I haven't found any concrete technological facts that suggest that it certainly is. And not for want of looking. If your comfort level with the known risks is different from mine, good luck to you - I honestly hope you don't need it. If it turns out you're right, I'm going to be eating soy and crow for some time. No real harm in that. But if it's YU3 or more, the crow's all yours. -- PeterMerel

I'm astounded by this, and also by the news that a friend in Washington State is running "preparedness" courses - how to cook stone soup in your hot-tub, grow carrots on your deck, etc. etc. Well, that's a little facetious, but really! What is wrong with your country? I mean, good luck to you, and all, but isn't this a little extreme? If Peter is thinking this way, then surely are many others, most of them I would guess are less thoughtful and intelligent than him. Might this "solution" be worse than the "problem".

I live in earthquake country. Forgetting Y2K, local government here advises I make preparations for unpredictable food/utility outages of up to a week. The suburb I'm in is a beautiful place that I'm only too happy to live in whether or not anything disastrous is on the way. So I figure my specific outlay on Y2K peace of mind is maybe a grand all up. Sure, I could get myself a big-screen TV or a couple of weeks in the south of France instead, but is my not doing so extreme?

This is somewhat disingenuous, surely?. Your statements above place a clear emphasis on things being "defensible" and so on. No one of your preparations is unreasonable in itself, it's the apparent thought process behind it.

Ah, guilty as charged. My family has a very long history of mostly getting wiped out in wars, and what oral tradition survives is to do with preparing for trouble before it arrives. No doubt this is foolishness, but it influences my conception of comfort. Nor do I think this aesthetic is all that uncommon; there's a good case to be made that much of what we find attractive in architecture, even apart from obviously pretty castles, has to do with defensibility. So it's not disingenuous paranoia - it's the evolution of refined taste :-)

Maybe my preparations are extreme. But you can't blame my extremity on "those crazy Americans"; I'm an Australian of European extraction and won't be eligible for crazy American citizenship for several months.

You may already have gone native...

That's a larger topic than you might think. The Australian and American cultures, on the surface, are very similar, but there are fundamental differences in outlook. IMHO the defining characteristic of the Australian outlook is skepticism in all things. You'll never hear an Australian adopt a position without deprecating it at the same time. Americans, in general, seem to take themselves much more seriously. When I don't openly admit that I'm ridiculous, you may bury my Australian credentials under some far off Mulga tree.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong (really, please do), but I know of no-one in Europe who is thinking in these terms, not publicly, anyway.

-- KeithBraithwaite

Try http://www.visa2003.com/ir1andcr1.htm

I tried. I must be missing the point. So a pretty good New York stock-picker thinks there's going to be a recession. What has this to do with the presence or otherwise of survivalism in Europe, or anywhere else? Please direct me to the relevant part of that site.

Well I was referring to Yardeni's role as a leading light for DeutscheBank?, but I'll see what else I can find and fling it onto YtwokInEurope?.

Paranoids can't help it. IMO, publishing this kind of stuff verges on the irresponsible because of the possibility of causing a panic that causes more trouble than the reality.

Um, you've got Yourdon, May, Yardeni et al. publishing head-for-the-hills books, Hamasaki and Infomagic recommending the best caliber of automatic weapons ammo, and I'm irresponsible because I admit on a small and out of the way server to storing some rice and beans and having some faith in Uncle Sam? You'll pardon me Ron, if I say that I think that's an over-reaction to what I've written.

I've checked my house. My oven, fridge, toaster, clocks, television, VCR, and all three cars don't know what day it is. My computers run beyond Y2K. I don't care if my Visa bill doesn't show up, or if it's wrong.

Of course I don't care about any of that either. I haven't checked my appliances or automobiles and if my bills have hiccups I could care less. Have you checked your electricity company? Your gas company? Your water company? Your oil company? Have you checked your railways? Don't you think those things are just a little more important to your way of life than your toaster, VCR, and SUV?

Response: No, I haven't checked those things. I am quite sure that my utility companies have a strong vested interest in providing service, as that's how they make money. They couldn't be unaware of the problem, even if they don't read wiki. If they do go down, they have the best impetus to get back up: money. I'm sure they're averagely smart, so I expect that if they go down, they'll be able to get back up promptly. People I know who look into these things tell me the same: there may be outages, they'll come back up. I lose power about a week a year anyway. Next time it happens I'll probably buy a generator. Will I stock fuel? Not much, if any. Why? Because I don't think the sky is falling. If on the other hand, the sky is falling, it's never too late to blow my brains out. Or the neighbor's. ;-> :esnopseR

Response to Response: On money saving us, this ignores not just FredBrooks but the NERC and the other published surveys too. Money might have saved us if the market rewarded looking ahead more than a year. But it doesn't, so corporate planners don't. The market watches the bottom line, not the blue sky. The jaw-dropping NERC figures, among too many others, make this plain.

Think hard. Remember all those businesses that claimed they were going to be finished by December 1998, with a year for testing? Well, check 'em out now. If you can find any that aren't saying March '99 or even June '99, with six or nine months for testing, you're doing better than me. What will this mean at the end of the year? I don't know, and I don't think anyone knows, but right now it means Money doesn't necessarily solve a time crunch.

On outages happening and then disappearing, I certainly agree with you. I don't see this as the end of the world as we know it, though I won't rule it out entirely. But it's that last bit you write that makes me feel paranoid. :-( :esnopseR ot esnopseR

Response^3: Not big money, not marketing money, not businesses planning and testing. The kind of money that means cash now. When XYZ corp's inventory goes down, the president calls in the programmers and says, "I need a program that for every part we make knows how many we have, lets us put in how many we sell and how many we make. I need it by Wednesday." The programmers just code it up. Think about it: the average PC has enough storage for a personnel database for the entire country. Let alone all the parts made by, say, Chrysler.

PeterDeJager's article, had one read it, notes that most of the things that are discovered not to work have been fixed in days, not months or years. The guy who runs the gas station at the corner will figure out a way to get the gas out of the ground. The electric company will figure out a way to get electricity to my house and the bill. I've heard that the phone companies are already ready to guarantee dial tone, they're just holding back because their lawyers won't let them. Civilization won't fall because it is not in the enlightened self interest of most of us to let it fall. L3^esnopseR

Continuing ThreadMode: I like your first paragraph. FixOnFailure works mighty quick, eh? And with embedded systems? And with control systems? And requiring no testing? And with no collateral damage? And on a global scale? I sure hope so, but I'd love to see evidence of this. Any evidence.

On your second paragraph, I haven't seen so much handwaving since the last Sydney bushfly plague. On the frightening end of the beam we have concrete empiricism, large-scale well-funded surveys, and detailed reports from guys like Hamasaki in the trenches. On the calming end of the scale we have unsupported optimism from management speakers like De Jager and a blind faith in the unevidenced foresight of market forces.

Maybe you're betting right, and what fails won't be particularly difficult to fix. But maybe this is more like 1917, 1929 or 1939, and what fails will take good people with it all over the world. All we really know is that there will be some failures, and when. My response is to hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Your response is to hope for the best, ignore any chance of the worst. Which one of these responses is irrational? Is that really a hard question to answer?

My response is not to head for the hills; I'm doing what a good geek should, sticking in an area where, if push comes to shove, I can help clean up the mess. I imagine your response will be to do likewise so long as you're not pre-occupied with finding shelter, water, food, warmth, or communication. YouArentGonnaNeedIt? Perhaps it's possible to take that principle too far. :edoMdaerhT gniunitnoC

Companies that aren't sure of their own manufacturing are building up stock to ensure shipments. Companies that aren't sure of their suppliers ditto.

Well Ron, this is good news. I'm sure you're not pulling this out of your hat, so you must have seen some reassuring figures. Where did you find them? A URL would be most helpful.

If the traffic lights go berserk, it won't be any worse than a random Wednesday.

I never have been able to figure out why we taxpayers put up with all this unnecessary spending on traffic lights. Hell, there's one on every corner - they must cost a mint. If we spent the same money on good sturdy strap-on wings we'd be living on the moon today.

Elevators don't have the technology to cut their own cables. Most of us aren't on life support.

I put elevators and life-support machines in the same basket as the SUVs and VCRs.

The only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Unfortunately, that may be enough. -- RonJeffries

Yes. It's quite possible that the panic will be worse than the technological outages. But the preparations a happy paranoid like me makes against the panic are the same. Perhaps I have too low an estimation of my fellow humans, but history suggests otherwise. -- PeterMerel

When's the last time civilization fell? When's the last time people came to your house to steal your food? Or your father's, or his father's, or ...

About sixty years ago, in Europe. And about thirty years before that, and about thirty years before that, and ... Grandfather on my mother's side was a wealthy entrepreneur who enjoyed a partnership with the Prince of Hungary before Poland fell in WW2. He fled to Paris, then to Sydney. Did quite well selling men's suits after that. Great grandfather on my father's side was Tyrolean gentry before WW1. Started a mustard company in Sydney, and you can still buy Merel's Mustard there today. But there's no family left on either side in Europe; the men who came to the door didn't just steal food ...