Ytwok Bet

CategoryHistorical

Well, we still have a year to go on this, but I confess I'm amazed at the lack of failures of any kind so far. What I've been worrying about for 18 months is untried failure modes. What I think is happening is that we engineer boxes to tolerate other boxes not working right. People are forever kicking out cables, installing things badly and so on. The YtwokEmbeddedSystems problem, at least the one that really scared me, has been eaten alive by these tolerances. We built the stuff better than we knew.

Now this isn't to say we're not going to see a truckload of glitches and snafus over the next year. But a bit at a time and we'll manage them fine I expect. TEOTWAWKI - no, definitely not. Infomagic, Tim May, Mr CEO, and the Baron, you can come on out, the millennium's fine.

And yes, I expect I'll be paying Ron this time next year. Gladly! --Pete

Well, so far so good. --RonJeffries 1/1/2000

Pete and Ron are betting on Ytwok. Pete sees trouble, Ron doesn't. The two have been trying to nail down terms for the bet, and this page is a good place for them to do that. Side bets welcome.

Are you guys going ahead with this? If so, who's interested in some side betting?

As noted on YtwokUpdate I'm feeling a little more optimistic as almost all the publicized dates of doom have come and gone quietly. I kind of wish I had named a smaller number than 5 cities ... like maybe 1 ... and I really wish I hadn't used the word "continuous" ... but the bean standard reassures me and a bet's a bet. I'd consider a hedge ... ;-) --PM

Ron will settle for the moral victory and the survival of the world as we know it.

Pete hopes to lose this bet, but certainly ain't backing out. A bet's a bet.

Pete says: Well Ron, trouble is, the better my odds, the harder to collect. But I'm game. If >= 5 of the largest 100 US cities experience continuous blackouts of > 1 week during the period 1/1/2000 - 1/1/2001, inclusive, then I win. Otherwise, you do.

Method: Ron buys himself some storable food and whatever sundry precautions he doesn't think he needs. Spends $500, stores it carefully, and if it turns out he needs it, he uses it. If Pete's terms are satisfied, when civilization returns Ron owes Pete then-cash equivalent of 1999 $500. Use bean-standard to figure it. If, on the other hand, TheEndOfTheWorld terms aren't met, Pete reimburses Ron bean-standard then-cash equivalent of 1999 $500.

So, if Pete wins, he lives with the likelihood that infrastructure problems make getting paid problematic. If Ron wins, he lives with the problem of disposing of many gallons of excess beans. If Ron loses, he's still happy because he eats. If Pete loses, he's still happy because civilization didn't fall.

Bet?

We don't count cities losing power due to acts of war unless war triggered automatically by Y2K-bug-bearing software.

Hrm. Odd hedge, don't care for it much. Reason?

I figure there's a non-zero chance that Iraq will intentionally bomb the East Coast of the Great Satan. But maybe I don't really care whether you give me the hedge or not.

I suspect better chance of Iraq intentionally bombing oilfields of great satan. After all, they know that trick works, right? But if food distribution really does get scarce, all international bets are off. China got to eat. I'd say this hedge is too complicated to nail down.

Otherwise OK. What's a good way to invest the $500?

Extremely. The usual order of survival preparations is shelter, water, food, fire. Shelter I think we can presume you got, though how secure we don't know. If you're in a high rise in the middle of downtown, maybe that's not so good. Water - many solutions at http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Alt9.htm, pick one. Food: rice and beans will keep body and soul together for a long time. Fire: what's your climate like there?

Shelter is good except the two window walls and big picture window facing the lake.

Sounds very pretty. A better solution than plywood might be security glass. Pricey way is to buy the stuff, less pricey way is self-adhesive polycarbonate film that comes in rolls and you apply to ordinary windows. Withstands hammer blows, shotgun blasts, handguns, even bombs. I'm probably going to be looking into this anyway, so will let you know what comes to hand. Not for Y2K in particular, just regular burglary defence for my new house. Not certain if it'll fit a $500 budget ...

Maybe I need some plywood so people can't attack me while I'm eating my beans and rice. Water - I have a well. With a generator I'm set. Don't know about hand pump, but should look into it.

Bucket and rope works fine in a pinch, or where you are just boil snow. Another way we used when I was a kid: seal a plastic bag around a tree limb. Tree respires water at an astonishing rate, much better than silly solar stills unless you happen to live in southern california like poor me.

Food: what, you just buy big n-gallon sealed rice/beans drums? Or a million packages of Vigo?

Lots of ways; I got empty airtight buckets from http://www.glitchproof.com . You might find cheaper at local bakeries. Fill 'em with storables, then use dry-ice to get rid of the O2. You can throw multivitamins in with each bucket to keep healthy. And any medications you think you're likely to use. Check use-by dates of course. I added protein and soymilk powders from http://www.soyfood.com ; to keep it under $500 I don't think you can afford that. Don't want to be downwind of your place next winter ...

Fire: Michigan gets cold. Have some firewood, need some more. Don't think I'd count it in the $500.

Very generous! If you were in a warmer climate I'd suggest you build a solar stove from cardboard and tinfoil. You might also consider either a solar lantern or an LED torch - either should fit under the $500, and much safer than candles.

Not certain what you'll do for TP; how many books do you have? Actually, quick question: are you on the sewer mains and do you live at the bottom of a hill? Electric pumps make shit flow up-hill ...

But what about Marital Law and the Fall of Darkness and all that? --RonJeffries

If your marriage can't survive eternal daytime then that's your problem. But seriously, if you get sent to the gulag I'll wait till you get out before I try to collect.

CategoryYtwok