Future Of Work

Future of Work by Tom Malone, 2004

ISBN 1591391253 This book is by MIT professor Tom Malone. Professor Malone has been credited for a 1987 prediction that goods and services would be traded electronically, before even the arrival of the HTTP.

He has also predicted outsourcing would become important, and that would have favoured workers who are more entrepreurial.

http://www.boston.com/business/personalfinance/articles/2004/03/14/mit_professor_sees_far_flung_future_workplace/

Did he really make earth-shattering predictions, or did he merely transpose the Japanese business model to the Western world? I thought the Japanese were well known with large corporations farming out specialist tasks to cottage industries?

Nobody can really predict the future of work with any accuracy, other than luck. Nobody really knows what is going to happen and how companies and employees in general will react to it because we have not been there yet and thus don't have socialogical experience with things we haven't seen yet. by netblock-66-245-195-143.dslextreme.com

It would be short-sighted to operate under the impression that the future can not be imagined and that scenarios about it cannot be relatively accurate. It is human-nature to posit "what-ifs" and other similar constructs to the present assuming the application of existing and potential technology. It is not simply a matter of "luck" that one creates such scenarios, and that they become realities. Envisioning is one of the most powerful of human mental processes and is the result of life-experiences to that point in time. To propose in 1965 that some day "there will be a computer on the desk of every engineer" when companies were looking at installing systems of just a few terminals connecting to existing main-frame computers costing hundreds of thousands of dollars, is not a "wild guess" or a "pipe dream", but rather a recognition of the power and efficiency of computing machines and the recognition of the economics of "mass production", together with driving force and need for accuracy and speed in the preparation of engineering designs. To propose scenarios in 1972 of smaller fuel efficient, non-polluting automobiles, when Detroit was producing wide heavy, over-powered, over-priced, gas-guzzling machines, would be a sensible thing in light of recognition of the limited fuel resources and the economic realities of scarcity. It is not "luck", but rather the application of the human-intellect, and the human-will to make such scenarios become realities. -- DonaldNoyes 20060810

BackToTheFuture?

NeverendingStory

2005 discussion on IT "worker" shortage at http://www.thefutureofwork.net/blog/archives/000259.html
- much smaller size of new entrants. See http://www.informationweek.com/blog/main/archives/2005/07/the_next_it_gen.html
2003 Australian perspective at http://www.jobsletter.org.nz/jbl18810.htm

Past analysis of the future

An analysis of 6 year trend (1990 onwards) in Australia, research Marcus Letcher reported the country created only 55,000 full-time jobs and 408,000 part-time job (ref: http://www.seek.com.au/if.asp?loc=ed036). Marcus had authored a book called "Making Your Future Work" (ISBN 0330360507 ). He has indentified the following important skill requirements:

saleable - market relevance
enterprising outlook - radar for opportunity
networking - connecting to people, information, opportunity, etc
SelfManagement - self knowledge as well
Niche work - position yourself in a spot out of reach by larger players

SocialDynamics angle

FragileRelationships and other social aspects

Multipart (23 points) posts at "Future Tense" worth reading (include the comments / responses). See at http://www.corante.com/futuretense/archives/038586print.html and http://www.corante.com/futuretense/archives/038700print.html and ???????????????

LogansRunSyndrome - 2005 version

At a ?Jul05 current affairs program these remarks were made by government related advisories:

Over 50 is TooOld for any job, and reschooling does not help. Retooled persons would still be prejudiced by their life experiences, and are viewed as barriers to innovation.
Over 30 is getting old for lots of jobs. Employers start to favor younger people due to more relevant skill set, and lesser need to attend to family matters.
Those that are out of the workforce for over twelve months, in a technology field such as computing, are viewed to be severely handicapped.

While I am more optimistic than the views stated above, nonetheless there is an "image problem" that older people seeking employed work will have to overcome.

Resources

FutureOfWork movement - interview with one of its founders at http://www.computerworld.com.au/pp.php?id=672067483&taxid=24

the consulting firm has signed up many large corporate members and a mid 05 addition is Boeing. See their blog at http://www.thefutureofwork.net/blog/

All in all, and exceptions considered, Technology tend to enhance restrictive top-down management. WirelessDevices could be used to track individuals...

see the gloomier view at http://www.cio.com/archive/120104/keynote.html, and the author reminded readers that Frederick Taylor who fathered "Scientific management" sold himself as the prophet of democracy out to enrich the middle class.

Post PC era thinking at South Korea (not the north!) .... RadioFrequencyIdTags (RFID) devices to track users and interfaces.. at http://www.theregister.co.uk/2004/12/06/post_pc_era/

Related: WorkingWhileTravelling

CategoryEmployment; CategoryBook