Crossing The Xp Chasm
Crossing The Xp ChasmCrossingTheChasm is the classic high tech marketing book. In it GeoffreyMoore says that there are four important market segments whenever you are introducing discontinuous change-
One possible explanation for our collective frustration is that ExtremeProgramming is making the transition from enthusiasts to early adopters. We have been crowing over how cool it is that such a simple set of practices could work, and everybody who could captivated by such a message has been.
In the crossing the chasm model, the way you get over the chasm is first to recognize that you have hit it (incredibly hard to do when you are successful), then create an absolute grand-slam-dunk solution for some part of the next segment.
The two areas where XP excels are handling vague and changing requirements, and in reducing risk. An example of the value of handling vague and changing requirements is securities trading. An example of the value of risk reduction is large on-line mainframe systems, like airline reservations. What would it mean to have TradingXp? or AirlineReservationXp??
There is another possibility entirely, and that is that XP is not discontinuous change. It is a small tweak on the chaotic methods used to produce most software in the world. I don't have a handy marketing model for that.
I think that XP is a discontinuous innovation, because it changes the infrastructure in terms of pair programming, unit testing, no BDUF, accommodating change, letting the customer drive, etc. Virtually every practice is a change to the status quo rigid waterfall method. -- GaryBrown?
The final possibility is that we are wrong and they are right. I make a practice of considering this question for 30 seconds each week.
I am going to make the rash and probably wrong assumption that the above was written by one of the Extremos. I have been thinking about this a lot lately. I am wondering WhyItIsSoHardToSellExtremeProgramming. -- GaryBrown?
The opening of this page forgot to mention that the 'chasm' that Moore talks about is the gap between the early adopters and the early majority. The early adopters are a group who want to do what nobody else is doing, because they can reap big rewards if what they adopt turns out to be a better way. The early majority are a group who don't want to do what nobody else is doing, because there's too much risk and effort involved to be the first. The early majority is more concerned with not being left too far behind, and also fixing critical problems that they are facing today.
The 'chasm' occurs because marketing that works for early adopters is actually counter-productive when applied to the early majority. It takes a complete about-face in marketing strategy to win over the early majority. During this transition phase, fewer and fewer early adopters become your customers (because the supply of them is limited, and you've saturated that market niche), and customers from the early majority are few and far between (because you can only get the ones who desperately need your product, which isn't that many).
Moore's sequel to CrossingTheChasm, titled InsideTheTornado, goes into more detail on how to get a foothold into the early majority and change your marketing strategy to suit them.
XP and other agile methods are firmly in the early adopter phase as of this writing (May 2003). They are undoubtedly discontinuous technologies, as GaryBrown? pointed out. People are using them today because they think it is a better way, and hope to reap some benefits from adopting it early. The current marketing is doing well in this segment. People are responding to anecdotes, most of the kinks have been worked out or at least noted, it has been proven successful in at least a few venues.
Strange as it may seem, the model predicts that the real chasm is coming up, as soon as all the early adopters have adopted, but failed to convince the early majority to climb aboard. It will take a couple of BowlingAlley? successes and a complete about-face in marketing to successfully cross the chasm.
However, I think that because XP is a method rather than a product sold by a company, it won't be in danger of dying in the chasm. There's nobody to go bankrupt, we don't depend on some third party source to keep XP alive. Instead, what could happen is that it never makes it across the chasm at all because there's nobody to market it either. It could get lost in all those other 'fads' that pop up in this industry. Something else could come along and displace it in the mainstream market (RUP?). And honestly, for the early adopters, that wouldn't be such a bad thing. About the only thing that could drive XP into mainstream is our customers. If customers start to clamor for XP, there won't be much choice for companies except to provide it.
It's an interesting model. I wonder what will actually happen.
See ExtremeMarketing
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