Ytwok Secondary Effects

Check out http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/1163 where EdYourdon outlines some seriously scary shit. Other worries picked up while skimming things: trains can these days no longer be manually switched, and the routing firmware will fail - most food distribution happens by train. On August 22, 1999 the whole GPS system will fail according to the US navy (as reported in the RISKS forum); many banks and transport networks rely on GPS for time syncs. PLCs, the heart of most power generation facilities, mines, manufacturing lines, etc. are many, varied, old, proprietary and highly vulnerable to y2k - and PLC programmers are few and far between. Countries outside the US have done almost nothing about y2k - Japan is especially likely to melt-down. Japanese banks are spending only $300 million on y2k in total - as opposed to US banks, which are spending $200-$600 million on it each. US bank executives have told congress they're ready to cease trading with non-compliant overseas banks ...

More really scary stuff from the US navy: http://www.cs.nps.navy.mil/people/faculty/mjholden/courses/csr100/Y2Kslides/tsld009.htm

That would be Ed Yourdon, author of "Decline and Fall of the American Programmer", and "Oh Yeah, The Rise and Resurrection of the American Programmer"?

Something nasty came to mind the other day, and it seems to me it may not be the only possible secondary effect either. I sure hope someone shoots this one down or tells me that there's already people working on it. But hunting around online this evening suggests most y2k analysts are expecting some kind of rush on the banks in '99 ...

It's not 1/1/00 yet; it's say 11/11/99. Maybe it's only 6/6/99. The newspapers start advising the public that to guarantee their safety during the possible 1/1/00 hiccups they need to stock up on food and medical supplies ... and cash. There are of course several orders of magnitude more bits in the bank than can be represented by the supply of actual banknotes, and within two weeks the banks are pretty much tapped out of paper money. The resultant panic causes a run on the banks not seen since 1929.
In the US the FDIC guarantees are worth nothing when the institutional investors come looking for their trillions. The entire banking system shuts down and markets drop like slaughtered cattle. Chaos ensues.
In Europe the panic jumps from country to country, heading east. The only part of the world with a recourse is the old Soviet bloc of countries, which almost immediately slides back into dictatorship.
Asia, and especially China and Japan, already weakened from their recent debt crisis, experience a dramatic disruption in the availability of imported food and offshore funds. Famine claims millions within months. Open warfare breaks out all around the pacific rim.
Cannibalism becomes the order of the day as darkness falls.

Okay, so please tell me why not. --PeterMerel

If there is an economic crisis then cash in any form will be worthless.

Will it? In '29 it wasn't that cash was worthless, just that it was unavailable, right? So long as people expect to get goods for cash, they're ripe to panic if the banks look like they might get wobbly. Look at it this way: come mid-late '99 won't you yourself feel like it's a good idea to have your money in a tangible form?

It would be wiser to stock up on tangible goods that you need to weather a crisis. Tell people to buy food, gasoline, toilet paper, bottled water and so forth.

Hell yes. But bottled water probably isn't what you want. 55-gallon drums of water is more like it. Most of the Y2K-survivalist sites I've found are suggesting a 3 month cache at a minimum. Who knows? Certainly better safe than sorry. And lay in a generator while you're at it. And, if you're some place susceptible to cold, a kerosene heater. Maybe, with luck, the electricity, trains, telephones and water pipes won't be disrupted. But do your really want to risk the good chance they might be?

Oh, and if you have pets, don't forget pet-food!

A nice side effect of this is that there is not the same shortage of tangible goods as there is of cash. Also tangible goods can be manufactured to meet the demand

It's not the supply of the goods that's the trouble, it's the distribution networks that are threatened. Apart from the actual technical hitches, when businesses fold en masse there are all kinds of ripples that foul things up.

therefore a run on the banks and horrendous economic crisis will not occur. -- MichaelDillon

You know, if we're lucky, most people will think this way. Gives the rest of us time to stock up!

What does LaoTse say about this? ;->

Speaking as a one-trick pony, Lao #80 seems like much the same advice as http://www.forbes.com/asp/redir.asp?/tool/html/98/may/0501/side1.htm and http://www.prepare4y2k.com

One quick thought: it may be that in the US, which is almost a cashless economy, a shortage of banknotes wouldn't cause a crisis in consumer confidence. The largest savings - 401ks and CDs - probably won't be touched. The markets may go nuts, but so long as you can still use your cheques and credit cards, you can still buy groceries, medicine, gasoline, water and so on. The rest of the world, however, is still wedded to cash for these things ... call me paranoid, but I have a bad feeling about this.

Programming language discussion moved to LanguagePissingMatch

Omigosh. If the Y2K problem is as bad as all that, why, like Yourdon says, are we as software professionals even bothering with anything else?

Here are a few some reasons:

Much of the problems are with firmware about which software professionals can do bugger all. How tough to find and replace? The US Navy says, "Imagine replacing the entire interstate road system" ...
Most of us haven't woken up to the scale of the problem. We still believe this is just some old COBOL bug that'll kill a few legacy systems, nothing important, probably just embarrass the odd bank manager.
Much of the problems are in countries with nowhere near the technical wherewithall required to do anything about it even if they were aware.

On the other hand there are those who believe YtwokIsNoBigDeal and others who think YtwokIsThreeEvents

One thing to consider: if everyone begins to stockpile food and fuel, it should have a short-term effect on certain portions of the stock market to the benefit of timely investors. This raises the question we should all be asking about the growing fear of Y2K: cui bono? Who benefits from such fears? I'm less inclined to panic than most, I guess, and not because I'm unaware of the many arguments for going to the bunker. There are certainly compelling reasons to be stockpiling gasoline, guns, and gumballs. But think of the stories you'll have to tell! "I remember the meltdown of 2000, all right!" After all, most of us are going to be here, like it or not, so, sure, be prepared, and then, for God's sake, relax. Enjoy the day. Share some kindnesses with those around you. That's what's really going to count when the shit hits the fan. Nothing less. --DonOlson

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