William Hartston

• Ex British chess champion,
• author of "How to Cheat at Chess: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Chess, but Were Afraid to Ask." (ISBN 1857440994 )
  • review at http://www.jimloy.com/books/cheat.htm
• author of the BeachComber? column in the "DailyExpress" (a British "NewsPaper")
• quite entertaining speaker

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Quoted as saying:

"If someone says 'within 5 years we can ...' then they probably know how to do it,

but if they say 'within 10 years we will be able to ...' they don't."

In my experience this is a pretty good predictor.