The Future Of Computing

Presentation

Some are very optimistic about the future of computing. They believe that we "ain't seen nothing yet"; that it is just a beginning. Computers will get smarter and smarter, programs more and more refined.

Others don't quite share this optimism. They claim essentially that WYSIWYG in the future. Compoters will be cheaper, faster but they will remain essentially like we know them today: fast and not-too-smart-machines.

Here is their debate

Computers and common sense

It all depends on solving the "common sense" problem. Computers lack common sense. Humans spend years learning millions of seemingly trivial facts that can be drawn upon during communication. The CycProject was one attempt to solve this problem. Cog is another. Eventually someone will figure it out because humans aren't magical, they're just complicated. It's only a matter of time before we can build an emulation of one well enough that it can understand what we say. -- EricHodges

It may take another 10,000 years. 50 years is nothing compared to how long it took humans to evolve. Look at how long it took us to build flying machines. -- EH

There's been life on this planet for over 3 billion years. I doubt anything we do will stop that. No one knows how much oil is in the ground. No one knows when it will run out. People will survive without oil, one way or another. People have been saying there's nothing left to invent for at least 100 years, and yet new things are still invented. There's plenty left to be invented. Our brains and our bodies are machines. There's nothing magical about them. Computers are the machines that can imitate any machine. I feed ideas to them all the time. They aren't clever enough or experienced enough to understand them in natural language yet, but there's no reason I can see that won't change given enough time. -- EH

[Cars, planes, washing machines etc. haven't changed in a 100 years. It is still basically the same design. Computers have been around mainstream for more than 20 let's say. They'll be smaller, faster but basically they will have a screen, a keyboard, in a 100 years from now. Translation by computer will not advance. I wish I could share yur optimism though. I am usually optimistic but not for this subject!]

Planes didn't exist 100 years ago (this was written before Dec 17th, 2003). Liquid fueled rockets didn't exist. Thermonuclear bombs didn't exist. Transistors didn't exist. DNA was unknown, and there were no gene sequencers. When I started programming (a little over 20 years ago) I was happy to get 16k of RAM and a 1MHZ processor for $500. Today I can get 32,000 times as much RAM and a processor running 15,000 time faster for the same money. I can edit digital video on my $500 PC today. There were no digital video editors 20 years ago. Neither of us can predict what computers will be like in 100 years. -- EH

[They'll be faster, better and cheaper just like they have been faster and better and cheaper since 20 years. But essentially they'll be the same. Just like cars. Still 4 wheels, still a clutch, a steering wheel]

I think you are the victim of marketing. Computers have been sold as appliances so long that people have begun to think of them as the software they run. Don't be fooled. Computers can imitate any machine we can describe. As the price of performance drops the number of machines worth imitating increases. That's why I can use my $500 PC to replace $100,000 worth of video editing gear. That's why my $500 PC is a better multi-track recorder than anything George Martin and the Beatles could dream of. That's why so many other dedicated machines have gone the way of the buggy-whip. Computers are nothing like cars. Cars are one class of machine. Computers can imitate every class of machine, including us. -- EH

[Well on this one I must agree. I have to agree. Computers are involved in cinema, photography, music, etc. as you rightly claim. This is clearly an amazing evolution that took place in the last 10 years. But the thing is: what else will the computer replace? Is there anything else it can replace?]

Computers can imitate any machine. That's why they were invented. As soon as it becomes cheaper to use a computer than some other machine, a computer replaces it. And some of the first machines it has replaced are the machines used to design and build new computers. This creates a feedback loop, where a better computer makes an even better computer possible. The same thing happened to metal lathes in the 19th century. The important difference is that metal lathes are just one class of machine. -- EH

CategoryFuture