Test The Water

Odds don't change over time. The house has an edge, and that don't change either. But nothing in the universe is static. Everything has a cycle - decay and renewal. Over the long run, it seems certain, the odds are right. But the odds say very little about the short run, so if you feel like you're on a streak there's nothing in science to say you ain't on a streak. Think of luck as waves on the sea of possibilities. If you're going to win in a game of chance, you need a way to ride those waves.

Therefore,

TestTheWater. Play some very small bets and see which way your luck is running. If it's running good, increase your bets. If it's running bad, decrease them. Wait for the wave to come. Maybe it doesn't come, and you lose piddly bets all night. So what? Go back the next night and try again. When it does come, ride it.

How? Well, that's what the GamblingPatternLanguage is about ...

Unfortunately science does have something to say about this. And it says that one throw of the dice does not depend upon the previous throw. Not only does this mean that there is no wave, but you are just as likely to lose your dough in a 'winning' streak as a 'losing' streak (so on average, in a random game, the advice above will lose you more money).

Also - There was a study published (I think in 2000) which showed that in football (ahem - soccer for US sports fans) there did not seem to be such a thing as a winning streak for a player - the odds of an individual scoring were the same whether or not others described them as being 'on form'. Consider yourselves warned!

You have it almost right. Indeed, one throw of the dice has absolutely nothing to do with another. The game is random. The "waves of luck" are only an artifact of human perceptual interactions with such games. So you don't want to bet your whole stake on any kind of streak. The wave behavior is just a random agglomeration of events that can as easily turn around on one play as on another.

Ergo: some plays you'll win. Some plays you'll lose. And the transitions between the two are quite random. If you play forever, then in the end it'll even out. But since you won't, there's a chance you'll get ahead. All TestTheWater is saying is, bet minimum bets in high action games until you can PlayWithHouseMoney. You may still lose in the long run. But in the meanwhile you'll see money pass through your hands, which can be quite a pleasant experience, and which may be leveraged in various ways.

The only time this advice does not apply is when the events being wagered on are not independent/random, i.e. not dice or cards but sports. So the only way to win is study form, and since the bookies do that for a living you can be sure the odds don't favour you.

You can't win. You can't break even. The game is rigged. But it's the only game in town.

My advice - only bet on fixed fights and poker games with your granny. Just don't bet on draughts with my granny, she's pretty sharp.

Life is full of games of chance. Every time you get out on the freeway you take your life in your hands. The fact that you're living at all is wildly improbable. Just by breathing you're gambling.

It's possible to beat bookies, if in fact you understand the game they're setting odds on better than them ... but if you're that good, ask yourself: Would it make more sense for you to be a bettor, or a bookie yourself?