Predict The Future

Lets use this page to predict what would happen to technology 1 year from now. I know that it is not easy. But lets try.. The format is as follows:

Prediction: <text goes here>
Date: <date>

It would be fun when we come back to this page after a year!

How about merely a time-line?

What kind of technology? I'm having trouble thinking of any technology that will significantly change in the next year. I don't think we're interested in "Moore's Law will continue to apply".

I don't think one year is enough scope - 3 to 5, maybe

Yes, now you're talking.

Predictions:

P2P (PeerToPeer) file sharing will further cut profits for the music industry, leading to the slow but visible decline of major record labels. 02/07/2002
Linux will undergo no more than 1 substantial change (such as efs3), and while making some minor inroads in the corporate arena, MS Windows will still dominate for the next 5 years. 02/07/2002
the fuel cell will be coopted by the car and energy industries to provide the minimum possible environmental benefit, which will be miniscule compared to the impact of SUVs. 02/07/2002
Environmentalists will lead the way in the efficient utilization of carpooling using the internet as the scheduling media via PDAs and Wireless communication, they will pack themselves into the smallest possible vehicle to minimize pollution. This they will do in spite of discomfort and inconvenience to show the way. First widely applied in California and Oregon. 07/08/2002

Interesting p2p (PeerToPeer) router (who could have predicted this?): http://apcmag.com/new_asus_wireless_router_has_bittorrent_and_hard_drive_built_in.htm

What about P2P and obiquitous computing etc... The aim is to find what will click and what will not.

I predict that neither will undergo any significant change in the next year. 2nd of July 2002

Can I second that prediction, and extend it to cover the next five years? 2002-07-02

[Hmm, why hasn't anyone used P2P (PeerToPeer) for browsing content online like a web browser does? Why can't we view P2P content directly in our web browser instead of requesting content just from web servers? Instead of sharing files, actually directly view the content on people's computer in your browser using a P2P web browser or an extension to existing browsers. Some P2P programs allow you to preview the content, but that's still not as convenient as an actual browser with a search engine like Google in it. P2P programs do have search technology in them, but it doesn't let you view the content immediately like a web browser. You have to do several clicks to view the content and it isn't integrated the way I am thinking. I predict in the future that there will be P2P browsers, and not just downloading tools.]

Be careful about the security implications.

[True, security is of great concern. However it would be exactly the same as current p2p tools such as bittorrent and emule. All that would need to be done is modify the software so that instead of having to click and open pop up menus to preview the file, it would instead view the file directly in a pane or panel like a web browser. Sharazza had something similar to this along with kazza where you could preview stuff in a panel, but it still wasn't as easy to use as a regular web browser. Emule, sharazza, and torrent is already a bit unsecure as it is, causing people to get spyware on Windows. P2P is not used much to view HTML content on people's computers. You would only allow people to access the HTML folders that you declared "public". Same goes with JPG's and PNG's. Sure, some people make the mistake of opening up their entire hard drive to the public, but that is true with existing tools like emule too.]

2012 - Open-source will displace Microsoft as the "default platform" for offices.
- Fail hard. It is now 2012 and MS still is extremely popular.
- Not quite. Android and related clones are spreading fast. Prediction may be late, not wrong. Android outsells Windows overall, just not in the office...yet. -2014
2013 - Microsoft unleashes an SCO-like lawsuit storm.
2015 - First fully-evolving computer virus makes a mad run before an expensive campaign eradicates it; but triggering copy-cat virus writers to borrow some of the techniques, complicating security by an order of a magnitude. (Added June 2011)
2017 - Microsoft files bankruptcy and is reorganized, becoming just another niche technology company. Is the latter predicated on the former? Because it's already happened.
2021 - After the president is shown on the web taking a shit and wiping himself via a micro-camera snuck into his hotel by a hacker, massive amounts of laws are passed in a mostly ineffective attempt to stop such activity. (Such cameras and microphones are a cheap commodity by now.)
2023 - Russia and Japan legalize genetically-enhanced/altered births, creating a political split between those who feel the US needs to do the same to economically compete, and religious groups opposed to such alterations. The instability creates a wave of new and altered religions, as well as heavy political polarity. It is dubbed "Sputnik with a Knife", referring to the division in opinion.
2025
- AI finally delivers on a machine that performs as well as an average human in a university lab based on clusters of thousands of PC's. The stock market goes wild with AI startups.
- Terrorists manage to nuke a major city, creating "9/11 2.0".
- FlyingCar finally becomes practical via coordinated computer-control [added Feb-2012]
2029 - AI "minds" become cheap enough to replace most human workers, creating an economic and political upheaval.
2030 - The first AI virus that results in premeditated robotic murder.
2032 - A popular multinational religious cult, upset about the unstable nature of Earth, launches 3 nuclear-powered multi-generational space colonies and heads for some promising stars.
2035 - A hacked network of robots created by suicidal terrorists takes over the world and all Earth humans are killed. The robots launch a ship to intercept and destroy the cult ship, and Battlestar Galactica becomes real....
2037 - After the colony ships learn of the robot army launch, they vote to pursue genetic engineering, a former taboo in the colonies, in order to compete with robots.

--top - Jan. 2008

(last edited July 9, 2002) -> looks more like ThePast?

Damn! They invented time travel too?

One near-term invention that may change the world would be good computer-assisted translation such that people could read and talk to different cultures with much greater ease. It could be unsettling for some of the more stagnant parts of the world, triggering something even bigger than the Arab Spring. Sure, there are online translators, but they still mostly suck. Oct-2011 --top

Time-line of social networks:

Pheromones > SmokeSignals > Phone > AOL > Friendster > Myspace > Facebook > SpaceFace > Cylon > Borg > c7a415b7032bc473 > Q > God > Emacs

See TheFuture, TwoPanelSmartPhone

CategoryTime, CategoryFuture