Las Vegas Test

MentalTelepathy

The LasVegasTest is an attempt to debunk pseudo-science. When that pseudo-science indulges in deterministic predictions ("you will WIN if you think like this!"), or when the debunker indulges in a StrawMan Argument, the test purports to debunk the pronouncement.

The test claims: "Merely ask yourself, If this were true, could LasVegas stay in business?"

The problem with this theory (besides the best pseudo-science does not indulge in determinism, or claim to influence statistics) is very simple:

The test ignores competition from the dealers MentalTelepathy and telekinetic prowess!' The house always wins.

(Also, slot machines are not random. They run a computer program designed to mess with your head, and any telekinesis that affects randomness won't work on them!;)

Guy hears a voice in his head: "Quit your job, sell your house, drive to Las Vegas, and sell your car." He hears it for three weeks. Finally, he can't take it any more, so he quits his job, sells his house, drives to Las Vegas, and sells his car.

Then the voice says "Caesar's Palace." So he goes to Caesar's Palace. The voice says "roulette table," so he goes to the roulette table. The voice says "Red 34," so he puts everything he has in the world on Red 34. The wheel spins and comes up Black 23. The voice says "Damn!"

Reminds me of that telekinesis comment by StanleySchmidt.

It must be true. Las Vegas WINS all the time. It's the schmucks that show up to give their money away that lose.