Judgment Under Uncertainty

JudgmentUnderUncertainty, edited by DanielKahneman?, PaulSlovic?, and AmosTversky?, published in 1982.

ISBN 0521284147

This book is a collection of research papers by the editors and their associates, covering psychological and game theoretical research conducted starting in the early 1970s. The overarching question is how human reasoning really works, as opposed to normative theories about how it ought to work. By identifying characteristic misjudgments, the authors identify several heuristics that we apparently use to shortcut to (wrong) solutions.

Sorry, it's hard for me to be more specific; it's twenty years since I read this book. For a popularization of the area, see InevitableIllusions.

-- MichaelSchuerig

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