Delta Economy

I believe that one of the reasons that tech jobs, and white-collar jobs in general, have been in a real lull this recession is that the economies of the "post industrial" nations are based on change rather than raw productivity. Producing and distributing widgets is either highly automate-able, or often done in low-wage factories in "third-world" nations (for lack of a better term). More and more white-collar work is about managing or creating change: designing new products and services, and the marketing behind them.

For example, if the economy is good, then Disney may build more theme-parks. If not, then it settles in to just run them. Keeping an existing theme-park running is mostly blue-collar labor: ticket cashiers, ride operators, floor sweepers, etc. However, theme-park design experts may be out of a job because there is little new construction or design. Thus, designers who may earn high salaries during expanding times may be unemployed or underemployed during such economic "survival mode" of companies. It is as if the body shuts down the brain to save energy for the heart and basic metabolism. In other words, hibernation.

Software development is similar. If a company is not growing or making significant changes, then it does not need as many software experts. Software does not generally "break"; it does the same job over and over. Most programming is to add new features or change tools or paradigms. -- Top

Job market contraction is also due to the fact that exponentially increasing technology enables one person to do what many used to. You read for instance how large corporations have been able to remove "layers and layers" of middle and upper management by consolidation OSSs (OperationsSupportSystem? s), ERP, CRM, Billing - great for shareholders, necessary for current survival of the company however if all large companies do that where will all these people go? Presumably many can start their own business but that is not an easy option for masses of workers, and even if they join other startups those are high risk. These people also don't like handouts from government but what other option is there if the structure of the economy is changing? Even the fast food workers are getting replaced with automated checkout and robot chefs. White collar workers (tech and otherwise) are facing the same forces that blue collar workers have faced - they are being replaced by machines. Even with recession ending the job market is not tracking as fast (although US and Canadian unemployment went down last month).

I disagree that ERP, CRM, etc. packages have lead to lots of layoffs. For the most part these technologies have not delivered. The like/dislike surveys of top managers has them at about 50/50. As far as machines replacing people, right now it is more a result of cheap overseas labor. Why build a brain from scratch when cheap, plentiful brains already exist overseas (or from rigged work visas)? Maybe someday AI will make something cheaper, but right now AI is not competative with labor from Cheapostan.

In the long term computers might potentially take over not like "Terminator" with robots blasting away, but rather by jobs being available only for very highly skilled labour. In the extreme they will make business processes so automated and cost structures so optimal till all you have left is MBA/PHd executive management with HandHeld s running an army of machines and servers. As they enable computers to program themselves then even those may be kicked out, the corporations only existing for a handful of billionaire shareholders/consumers who will own/purchase the output of these companies. Survival of the fittest - society needs ways to adapt or if the machines are fitter then Matrix and Terminator may be more prophecy than fantasy. Someone predicted a 25 year boom (the smiling face on the cover of WiredMagazine? back in 98 or so) which was dashed when the tech bubble burst. Perhaps next time around in the BusinessCycle those dynamics may balance out "the rise of the machines" but as a society we need to figure out what we are doing, what is the impact of all this wonderful technology we are developing. Should we stop advancement, no. Should we take a macro view and apply the same intelligence to figuring out sutainable structures for the economy and society (without becoming Orwellian) as we do to creating better and faster hardware and software at a micro level, yes.

It is ironic that many of the people creating the technology have contributed to their replacement but probably no stranger than the fact that many blue collar people made the machines that made the robots that took their assembly line jobs, directly or indirectly. The sad thing is many probably retrained for write collar positions only to feel the same pressures again. Lots of really skilled people are having a hard time getting permanent work - the best option for survival is to be in that executive layer so worst case you are last to be cut (and get million dollar severances if you do). Or go back to nature, become a mountain climbing or canoeing instructor that might take a while for machines to get better at. Nothing wrong with jobs like that and love to do that stuff on vacation. The question is can the whole society do that going into the future?

The tech sector evaporated because it was built on a false economy. Thousands of tech jobs were created because of investment bank and analysts hype. When the hype was exposed there was no revenue to sustain those jobs. It was a bubble and it popped. -- EricHodges

I agree, and we must also factor in that software, esp. in the systems/database/web server area was awful in the 90's requireing an army of techies to support. Believe it or not, even Windows has improved requiring less support. Kiss a bunch of sysape jobs goodbye.